Open Forum

New Delhi, 11 October 2023

Flood Devastation

ACTUAL CONTROL MECHANISM VITAL

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The worst-ever recent floods in Sikkim due to the outburst in the South Lhonak Lake, located at 5200m (17,000 ft) was predicted by researchers about 20 years back. Experts feel that this was triggered because of dam building and unplanned construction along the Teesta’s downstream. Even lately, the 2021 study, published in journal Geomorphology, highlighted that the South Lhonak Lake witnessed a significant growth in the past decades due to glacial retreat, thereby increasing its chances of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). According to estimates, over 60 people have died and 130 are still missing due to the floods.   

Today the challenges of floods are of a different magnitude altogether. The monsoon has become more erratic and unpredictable, bringing extreme rainfall on the one hand and sudden drought on the other. Worryingly, India’s drought-prone area has increased by 57 percent since 1997 while instances of heavy rainfall have risen by almost 85 percent since 2012.  This can have far-reaching impacts, affecting several generations. The other factor is the occurrence of floods and landslides in the Himalayan region. 

Globally too,devastating floods have occurred, the most recent being in Libya where the eastern city of Derna was most affected due to the bursting of two dams, and deaths are expected to reach 18,000 to 20,000. Though not so high in intensity, extreme flooding was reported from the same Mediterranean storm hit Greece and Turkey. Libya has a dry climate and rarely experiences such heavy rainfall. 

India is highly vulnerable to floods, the Northeast led to around half a million people being affected due to severe flooding after heavy rains battered the region, turning roads into rivers and submerging entire villages. Over 495,000 people spread across 22 districts in Assam have been impacted by floodwaters. 

In fact, the State which has over 31 million people, experienced heavy rains and flooding during the unrelenting monsoon season, April to September. This year’s flooding comes a week after tropical cyclone Biparjoy hit India’s west coast, ripping trees and toppling electricity poles. In contrast, parts of northern India experienced an unrelenting heat wave as temperatures soared in two of the most populous States, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. 

Dozens of people have died across the States, which saw temperatures reach 47 degrees Celsius over the weekend. July has seen heavy rains lash northern India. Ittriggered flash floods, landslides and evacuations across large parts of the region. Several rivers, including Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Yamuna and Ganga, have been in spate. Videos of bridges, roads and even houses crumbling under the sheer force of raging waters have gone viral. Even the waters of the Yamuna reached the walls of the Taj Mahal for the first time since 1978 floods. 

In Delhi, an overflowing Yamuna breached the “high flood level” mark on July 12 for the first time in 45 years, according to the Central Water Commission. Waters rose to 208.57 metres as on July 13 -- the highest mark ever. Several parts of the city were inundated. Schools, colleges, and non-essential government and private offices were shut down. 

Scientifically it is found that the unusually curled up monsoon this year caused by early season cyclone and typhoons conspired with the warm Arabian Sea to funnel in atmospheric rivers to the Himalayan foothills. While the Arabian Sea warming is attributable to global warming, the rest of the monsoon trough evolution is simply natural variability in a warmer world. The Arabian Sea warming is driving the growing extremes over north-western India. Other studies show cyclones over Arabian Sea are increasing and sea levels are rising around Indian coasts. 

On the question of mitigation of floods and droughts, India has launched many policies and programmes to improve water security and build climate resilience -- several with World Bank support. This includes advances in technologies such as flood forecasting models, hydromet services and early warning systems, greater dam safety, and a national plan for disaster management. Even so, these measures, although laudable, have not been able to address the scale of India’s water woes. 

Experts believe that floods and droughts don’t need to become disasters and it depends on how society and local self-government manages these climatic extremes. While governments tend to deal with these in a slipshod manner, what is needed is a paradigm shift in the way these events are managed altogether. It is a complex problem that requires a multi-sectoral approach to reduce the risks and impacts. Given the urgency of staying ahead of the changing climate, the World Bank, with support from Deltares, a Netherlands-based research institute, has put forward a new perspective to better manage these risks -- the EPIC Response framework (Enable, Plan, Invest, Control). 

At a recent workshop of the World Bank with States such as Assam, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala and Odisha, it was pointed they face many common challenges though they have different climatic, economic, and social conditions. In Karnataka, for instance, around 20,000 water bodies have dried up and, in many districts, groundwater is depleting by the day. In Assam, on the other hand, where the mighty Brahmaputra flows, floods, riverbank erosion, and encroachment of riverine areas are the major challenges. In Bihar, too, where many rivers flow down from the mountains of Nepal carrying large sediment loads, more than 70% of the land is flood prone. What’s more, 28 out of Bihar’s 38 districts are affected by either floods or droughts, and sometimes by both every year. 

The newly developed EPIC response framework by the Bank was presented at the workshop which has been designed to better manage these climate extremes. It emphasises that floods and droughts be addressed as different ends of the same spectrum, and the whole of society be involved in the response, including government, private sector, local government, academia, and civil society. 

The Framework is now being piloted in India’s flood-prone state of Assam, along with a new tool that enables various agencies to assess the status of their flood and drought protection programs, identify where collaboration can be enhanced, and track progress over time. It enables various agencies to assess the status of their hydro-climatic risk management systems, identify areas where programme components can be strengthened, ascertain where collaboration can be enhanced, and track progress over time. The results can facilitate a policy dialogue to generate a common understanding of their programs’ status, as well as the challenges and opportunities for enhancing flood and drought risk management systems. 

More than any natural disaster, it’s a well-known fact that floods and cyclones cause the greatest loss, and the poorer and weaker sections are greatly affected. Even the IPCC suggested that increasing storm events and floods will frequently occur and the urban poor will be the most affected community. This is known to all planners and government officials but even then,tackling them before the occurrence of floods, which has become quite a frequent phenomenon, has not been undertaken in an organised manner. Obviously, the segment of population affected does not have a loud voice and there is nobody to take up their cause in right earnest. 

It is quite unfortunate that in such a situation, climate-resilient structural and non-structural solutions for effective water governance have not taken place despite lot of talk by political leaders and technocrats. It remains to be seen how long floods would continue to cause huge loss lives and property and when the government would seriously tackle this national disaster.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 10 October 2023

Mandal 2.0 Vs Kamandal

WILL CASTE NOOSE STIFLE INDIA?

By Poonam I Kaushish 

Even as one empathises with Jews and Palestines caught in the crossfire of Hamas-Israeli forces and people trapped in the crosshairs of Russia-Ukraine’s war, few have paid scant attention to   hostilities in India. Succinctly, poster war between arch rivals BJP-Congress, which promises to get vicious and acerbic with announcement of polls in 5 States next month. Jumla vs Ravaan. 

However, this is just thin edge of the wedge. More important are ramifications of the caste survey by Opposition-ruled Bihar which now has ballooned to other States: Odisha, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka as it captures the socio-political imagination, going beyond electoral tags and identities to divide people on caste lines, as happened during Advani's Ayodhya rath yatra Mandir-Mandal row 1990. 

Recall, Janata Dal constituents were Mandal Commission’s largest beneficiary. The Samajwadi and RJD represent Yadavs, RLD and INLD Jats, Karnataka’s Gowdas Vokkaligas. BJP has successfully created a wedge between Yadav-non-Yadav OBCs in UP and Bihar, thereby reducing these Parties influence. But for how long? 

In INDIA bloc’s thinking when caste becomes central to livelihood issues which are centred on identification and reservation, they feel there is a greater chance it will have greater electoral pull than religion. Congress’s Rahul has already sounded the bugle “Jitne abadi utna haq,” to garner votes and somehow dislodge Prime Minister Modi. 

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish has called for lifting 50% reservation ceiling. Rajasthan’s Gehlot has announced 6% reservation to Most Backward Castes in addition to 21% for OBCs. 

On the face of it, Opposition leaders assert goal of caste census is OBCs welfare, Sic. It’s a ploy to divide Hindu votes on caste lines to weaken BJP in 2024 elections. Said a senior Congress leader, “Caste census would open another flank and create problems for   BJP. The axis would be pro-Modi vs anti-Modi and we will try to mobilise OBCs. This will be Mandal 2.0, different from Mandal 1.0 which involved aggressive OBC mobilization.”  

Failing to realize politicisation of caste is a double-edged sword. Caste needs politics as much as politics need caste. When caste groupings make politics their sphere of activities they get a chance to assert their identity and strive for power and position. 

Sadly to gain vote-banks none have paid heed to the Frankenstein they have unleashed.  True, none can fault granting equal opportunities to all. But whether this would translate into equal outcome is debatable. Questionably, will not caste further fractionalize national politics? Will the run-up to 2024 elections be fought on caste basis? 

For BJP caste might not have become a big issue as it has now, had it not been for the Party's bid to retain the Hindu vote-bank . Certainly, Ayodhya temple’s sanctification slated for January might be an electoral draw. Yet, it may not be a big political issue as Babri Masjid demolition was December 1992 . 

Besides, the Party shot itself in the foot by delaying the decennial Census 2021-2026, resulting in Opposition combine promising a caste-based Census soon. Though,  INDIA bloc is yet to prove it has the delivery mechanism to take on BJP at grassroots level, vis-à-vis interests and aspirations of  aam aadmi. As a counter, BJP too could promise caste census in 2026, before Opposition gets its act together. 

As it stands BJP has the highest support of OBCs which has grown exponentially from 7% in 1971 to 22% in 2009 and doubled to 44% in 2019. The NDA received 54% OBC support in 2019. As Modi hails from this community, the Party’s claim of higher representation to OBCs in ticket allocations and at the Centre alongside formation of the Justice Rohini OBC Commission to address their issues through the Constitutional framework have helped it get OBC support. 

Hence, Party might implement the Commission’s report to counter Opposition’s narrative of “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari” to further consolidate its support amongst lower OBCs. However, this strategy is fraught with risks as BJP would need to renounce its formula of consolidating caste groups in Hindutva’s name and strong nationalism. 

Pertinently, Justice Rohini Commission formed 2017 for sub-categorisation of OBC groups, over 2,600 in the Central OBC list, accounting for 41%-52% of population, getting 27% reservation in Central Government jobs and educational institutions, so that benefits could be equitably redistributed submitted its report in July. Its finding found 97% jobs and education seats had gone to 25% of OBC sub-castes while 983 OBC communities had zero representation. 

Interestingly, OBC sub-categorisation has been implemented at Panchayat level by West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra, Telangana, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, J&K, Haryana and Puducherry. An example in Bihar there are two categories: OBC 1 and OBC 2 (Economically Backward Classes). The former has 33 sub-caste groups, latter 113 of which 18% State Government jobs and seats in educational institutes are reserved for EBCs, 12% for OBC 1 castes and 3% for OBC women. 

BJP has also focussed its efforts on non-dominant OBCs and MBC, which have been ignored by Opposition Parties. This strategy has helped the Party against the Mahagathbandhan in UP 2019 general elections across all socio-economic classes amongst OBCs, except middle class. 

Resulting in SP being reduced from 35 MPs in 2004 to just 5 in 2019; RJD from 22 seats in 1999 and 2004 to zilch in 2019; RLD from 5 seats in 2009 to nil in 2019; INLD from 5 in 1999 to zero in 2019 and JD(S) from 16 in 1996 to 1in 2019. 

The BJP over 9 years has successful broken caste-based narratives, uniting upper castes, backwards, Dalits and tribals under its Hindutva umbrella and nationalism pitch. Consequently, out of every 100 BJP voters 49 belong to OBC community. A fact which bugs INDIA.

The sub-categorisation of OBCs and separate quotas for MBC’s who account for over 75% of  OBC population could further consolidate their support in favour of  BJP in the 2024 general elections, deflect attention from the caste census as also help break the Opposition’s narrative. 

Conversely, the more demands for caste surveys and reservations are raised, there is an equally greater chance and opportunity for BJP to package it as a ‘divisive agenda’ against their ‘national unification call’ centred around Hindutva. Any wonder its UP Chief Minister Yogi has declared Sanatana Dharma as the only religion to counter Bihar’s caste survey. No matter this could open a Pandora's box. 

However, unleashing the Rohini Commission report is fraught with risks. Any effort to polarise votes on the basis of caste could mean moving away from tried-and-tested Hindutva and nationalism plank of the Party. 

Currently, OBCs are seen as two blocks by BJP --- dominant and non-dominant, upper and lower. It intends to woo dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, and Kushwahas in Bihar and UP and Vokkaligas in Karnataka. Any sub-categorisation will close doors on these sub-castes and make Mandal 1 progenies Akhilesh, Lalu and Nitish stronger in their communities. 

Will the BJP take such a risk before 2024? This remains to be seen. Either way the caste Frankenstein must be stopped. This is no time for mindless populism of Mandal vs Kamandal politics as it will only further divide people on caste lines and increase the chasm between the haves and have-nots. If Bharat has to reach its pinnacle of success it cannot revel in petty politricks. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 10 October 2023

Mandal 2.0 Vs Kamandal

WILL CASTE NOOSE STIFLE INDIA?

By Poonam I Kaushish 

Even as one empathises with Jews and Palestines caught in the crossfire of Hamas-Israeli forces and people trapped in the crosshairs of Russia-Ukraine’s war, few have paid scant attention to   hostilities in India. Succinctly, poster war between arch rivals BJP-Congress, which promises to get vicious and acerbic with announcement of polls in 5 States next month. Jumla vs Ravaan. 

However, this is just thin edge of the wedge. More important are ramifications of the caste survey by Opposition-ruled Bihar which now has ballooned to other States: Odisha, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka as it captures the socio-political imagination, going beyond electoral tags and identities to divide people on caste lines, as happened during Advani's Ayodhya rath yatra Mandir-Mandal row 1990. 

Recall, Janata Dal constituents were Mandal Commission’s largest beneficiary. The Samajwadi and RJD represent Yadavs, RLD and INLD Jats, Karnataka’s Gowdas Vokkaligas. BJP has successfully created a wedge between Yadav-non-Yadav OBCs in UP and Bihar, thereby reducing these Parties influence. But for how long? 

In INDIA bloc’s thinking when caste becomes central to livelihood issues which are centred on identification and reservation, they feel there is a greater chance it will have greater electoral pull than religion. Congress’s Rahul has already sounded the bugle “Jitne abadi utna haq,” to garner votes and somehow dislodge Prime Minister Modi. 

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish has called for lifting 50% reservation ceiling. Rajasthan’s Gehlot has announced 6% reservation to Most Backward Castes in addition to 21% for OBCs. 

On the face of it, Opposition leaders assert goal of caste census is OBCs welfare, Sic. It’s a ploy to divide Hindu votes on caste lines to weaken BJP in 2024 elections. Said a senior Congress leader, “Caste census would open another flank and create problems for   BJP. The axis would be pro-Modi vs anti-Modi and we will try to mobilise OBCs. This will be Mandal 2.0, different from Mandal 1.0 which involved aggressive OBC mobilization.”  

Failing to realize politicisation of caste is a double-edged sword. Caste needs politics as much as politics need caste. When caste groupings make politics their sphere of activities they get a chance to assert their identity and strive for power and position. 

Sadly to gain vote-banks none have paid heed to the Frankenstein they have unleashed.  True, none can fault granting equal opportunities to all. But whether this would translate into equal outcome is debatable. Questionably, will not caste further fractionalize national politics? Will the run-up to 2024 elections be fought on caste basis? 

For BJP caste might not have become a big issue as it has now, had it not been for the Party's bid to retain the Hindu vote-bank . Certainly, Ayodhya temple’s sanctification slated for January might be an electoral draw. Yet, it may not be a big political issue as Babri Masjid demolition was December 1992 . 

Besides, the Party shot itself in the foot by delaying the decennial Census 2021-2026, resulting in Opposition combine promising a caste-based Census soon. Though,  INDIA bloc is yet to prove it has the delivery mechanism to take on BJP at grassroots level, vis-à-vis interests and aspirations of  aam aadmi. As a counter, BJP too could promise caste census in 2026, before Opposition gets its act together. 

As it stands BJP has the highest support of OBCs which has grown exponentially from 7% in 1971 to 22% in 2009 and doubled to 44% in 2019. The NDA received 54% OBC support in 2019. As Modi hails from this community, the Party’s claim of higher representation to OBCs in ticket allocations and at the Centre alongside formation of the Justice Rohini OBC Commission to address their issues through the Constitutional framework have helped it get OBC support. 

Hence, Party might implement the Commission’s report to counter Opposition’s narrative of “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari” to further consolidate its support amongst lower OBCs. However, this strategy is fraught with risks as BJP would need to renounce its formula of consolidating caste groups in Hindutva’s name and strong nationalism. 

Pertinently, Justice Rohini Commission formed 2017 for sub-categorisation of OBC groups, over 2,600 in the Central OBC list, accounting for 41%-52% of population, getting 27% reservation in Central Government jobs and educational institutions, so that benefits could be equitably redistributed submitted its report in July. Its finding found 97% jobs and education seats had gone to 25% of OBC sub-castes while 983 OBC communities had zero representation. 

Interestingly, OBC sub-categorisation has been implemented at Panchayat level by West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra, Telangana, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, J&K, Haryana and Puducherry. An example in Bihar there are two categories: OBC 1 and OBC 2 (Economically Backward Classes). The former has 33 sub-caste groups, latter 113 of which 18% State Government jobs and seats in educational institutes are reserved for EBCs, 12% for OBC 1 castes and 3% for OBC women. 

BJP has also focussed its efforts on non-dominant OBCs and MBC, which have been ignored by Opposition Parties. This strategy has helped the Party against the Mahagathbandhan in UP 2019 general elections across all socio-economic classes amongst OBCs, except middle class. 

Resulting in SP being reduced from 35 MPs in 2004 to just 5 in 2019; RJD from 22 seats in 1999 and 2004 to zilch in 2019; RLD from 5 seats in 2009 to nil in 2019; INLD from 5 in 1999 to zero in 2019 and JD(S) from 16 in 1996 to 1in 2019. 

The BJP over 9 years has successful broken caste-based narratives, uniting upper castes, backwards, Dalits and tribals under its Hindutva umbrella and nationalism pitch. Consequently, out of every 100 BJP voters 49 belong to OBC community. A fact which bugs INDIA.

The sub-categorisation of OBCs and separate quotas for MBC’s who account for over 75% of  OBC population could further consolidate their support in favour of  BJP in the 2024 general elections, deflect attention from the caste census as also help break the Opposition’s narrative. 

Conversely, the more demands for caste surveys and reservations are raised, there is an equally greater chance and opportunity for BJP to package it as a ‘divisive agenda’ against their ‘national unification call’ centred around Hindutva. Any wonder its UP Chief Minister Yogi has declared Sanatana Dharma as the only religion to counter Bihar’s caste survey. No matter this could open a Pandora's box. 

However, unleashing the Rohini Commission report is fraught with risks. Any effort to polarise votes on the basis of caste could mean moving away from tried-and-tested Hindutva and nationalism plank of the Party. 

Currently, OBCs are seen as two blocks by BJP --- dominant and non-dominant, upper and lower. It intends to woo dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, and Kushwahas in Bihar and UP and Vokkaligas in Karnataka. Any sub-categorisation will close doors on these sub-castes and make Mandal 1 progenies Akhilesh, Lalu and Nitish stronger in their communities. 

Will the BJP take such a risk before 2024? This remains to be seen. Either way the caste Frankenstein must be stopped. This is no time for mindless populism of Mandal vs Kamandal politics as it will only further divide people on caste lines and increase the chasm between the haves and have-nots. If Bharat has to reach its pinnacle of success it cannot revel in petty politricks. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 10 October 2023

Mandal 2.0 Vs Kamandal

WILL CASTE NOOSE STIFLE INDIA?

By Poonam I Kaushish 

Even as one empathises with Jews and Palestines caught in the crossfire of Hamas-Israeli forces and people trapped in the crosshairs of Russia-Ukraine’s war, few have paid scant attention to   hostilities in India. Succinctly, poster war between arch rivals BJP-Congress, which promises to get vicious and acerbic with announcement of polls in 5 States next month. Jumla vs Ravaan. 

However, this is just thin edge of the wedge. More important are ramifications of the caste survey by Opposition-ruled Bihar which now has ballooned to other States: Odisha, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka as it captures the socio-political imagination, going beyond electoral tags and identities to divide people on caste lines, as happened during Advani's Ayodhya rath yatra Mandir-Mandal row 1990. 

Recall, Janata Dal constituents were Mandal Commission’s largest beneficiary. The Samajwadi and RJD represent Yadavs, RLD and INLD Jats, Karnataka’s Gowdas Vokkaligas. BJP has successfully created a wedge between Yadav-non-Yadav OBCs in UP and Bihar, thereby reducing these Parties influence. But for how long? 

In INDIA bloc’s thinking when caste becomes central to livelihood issues which are centred on identification and reservation, they feel there is a greater chance it will have greater electoral pull than religion. Congress’s Rahul has already sounded the bugle “Jitne abadi utna haq,” to garner votes and somehow dislodge Prime Minister Modi. 

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish has called for lifting 50% reservation ceiling. Rajasthan’s Gehlot has announced 6% reservation to Most Backward Castes in addition to 21% for OBCs. 

On the face of it, Opposition leaders assert goal of caste census is OBCs welfare, Sic. It’s a ploy to divide Hindu votes on caste lines to weaken BJP in 2024 elections. Said a senior Congress leader, “Caste census would open another flank and create problems for   BJP. The axis would be pro-Modi vs anti-Modi and we will try to mobilise OBCs. This will be Mandal 2.0, different from Mandal 1.0 which involved aggressive OBC mobilization.”  

Failing to realize politicisation of caste is a double-edged sword. Caste needs politics as much as politics need caste. When caste groupings make politics their sphere of activities they get a chance to assert their identity and strive for power and position. 

Sadly to gain vote-banks none have paid heed to the Frankenstein they have unleashed.  True, none can fault granting equal opportunities to all. But whether this would translate into equal outcome is debatable. Questionably, will not caste further fractionalize national politics? Will the run-up to 2024 elections be fought on caste basis? 

For BJP caste might not have become a big issue as it has now, had it not been for the Party's bid to retain the Hindu vote-bank . Certainly, Ayodhya temple’s sanctification slated for January might be an electoral draw. Yet, it may not be a big political issue as Babri Masjid demolition was December 1992 . 

Besides, the Party shot itself in the foot by delaying the decennial Census 2021-2026, resulting in Opposition combine promising a caste-based Census soon. Though,  INDIA bloc is yet to prove it has the delivery mechanism to take on BJP at grassroots level, vis-à-vis interests and aspirations of  aam aadmi. As a counter, BJP too could promise caste census in 2026, before Opposition gets its act together. 

As it stands BJP has the highest support of OBCs which has grown exponentially from 7% in 1971 to 22% in 2009 and doubled to 44% in 2019. The NDA received 54% OBC support in 2019. As Modi hails from this community, the Party’s claim of higher representation to OBCs in ticket allocations and at the Centre alongside formation of the Justice Rohini OBC Commission to address their issues through the Constitutional framework have helped it get OBC support. 

Hence, Party might implement the Commission’s report to counter Opposition’s narrative of “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari” to further consolidate its support amongst lower OBCs. However, this strategy is fraught with risks as BJP would need to renounce its formula of consolidating caste groups in Hindutva’s name and strong nationalism. 

Pertinently, Justice Rohini Commission formed 2017 for sub-categorisation of OBC groups, over 2,600 in the Central OBC list, accounting for 41%-52% of population, getting 27% reservation in Central Government jobs and educational institutions, so that benefits could be equitably redistributed submitted its report in July. Its finding found 97% jobs and education seats had gone to 25% of OBC sub-castes while 983 OBC communities had zero representation. 

Interestingly, OBC sub-categorisation has been implemented at Panchayat level by West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra, Telangana, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, J&K, Haryana and Puducherry. An example in Bihar there are two categories: OBC 1 and OBC 2 (Economically Backward Classes). The former has 33 sub-caste groups, latter 113 of which 18% State Government jobs and seats in educational institutes are reserved for EBCs, 12% for OBC 1 castes and 3% for OBC women. 

BJP has also focussed its efforts on non-dominant OBCs and MBC, which have been ignored by Opposition Parties. This strategy has helped the Party against the Mahagathbandhan in UP 2019 general elections across all socio-economic classes amongst OBCs, except middle class. 

Resulting in SP being reduced from 35 MPs in 2004 to just 5 in 2019; RJD from 22 seats in 1999 and 2004 to zilch in 2019; RLD from 5 seats in 2009 to nil in 2019; INLD from 5 in 1999 to zero in 2019 and JD(S) from 16 in 1996 to 1in 2019. 

The BJP over 9 years has successful broken caste-based narratives, uniting upper castes, backwards, Dalits and tribals under its Hindutva umbrella and nationalism pitch. Consequently, out of every 100 BJP voters 49 belong to OBC community. A fact which bugs INDIA.

The sub-categorisation of OBCs and separate quotas for MBC’s who account for over 75% of  OBC population could further consolidate their support in favour of  BJP in the 2024 general elections, deflect attention from the caste census as also help break the Opposition’s narrative. 

Conversely, the more demands for caste surveys and reservations are raised, there is an equally greater chance and opportunity for BJP to package it as a ‘divisive agenda’ against their ‘national unification call’ centred around Hindutva. Any wonder its UP Chief Minister Yogi has declared Sanatana Dharma as the only religion to counter Bihar’s caste survey. No matter this could open a Pandora's box. 

However, unleashing the Rohini Commission report is fraught with risks. Any effort to polarise votes on the basis of caste could mean moving away from tried-and-tested Hindutva and nationalism plank of the Party. 

Currently, OBCs are seen as two blocks by BJP --- dominant and non-dominant, upper and lower. It intends to woo dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, and Kushwahas in Bihar and UP and Vokkaligas in Karnataka. Any sub-categorisation will close doors on these sub-castes and make Mandal 1 progenies Akhilesh, Lalu and Nitish stronger in their communities. 

Will the BJP take such a risk before 2024? This remains to be seen. Either way the caste Frankenstein must be stopped. This is no time for mindless populism of Mandal vs Kamandal politics as it will only further divide people on caste lines and increase the chasm between the haves and have-nots. If Bharat has to reach its pinnacle of success it cannot revel in petty politricks. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)